{
  "id": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1",
  "concept": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17",
  "type": "datasetpaper",
  "title": "Source-prioritization choices move industrialized-country GHG totals more than others",
  "discipline": "climate data science / greenhouse-gas inventories",
  "description": "A widely used national historical greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions dataset is published in two parallel variants of the same time series. Both describe the…",
  "url": "https://datasetpapers.com/papers/primap-hist-prioritization-scenario-divergence/",
  "status": "gated",
  "trust_distance": 0,
  "gate": {
    "passed": true,
    "version": "gate-0.1",
    "novelty_grade": "B",
    "failed": []
  },
  "verification": {
    "claims": 5,
    "self_reported_re_executed": 0,
    "independent_reexecution": {
      "status": "matched",
      "reproduced": true,
      "method": "re_execution",
      "ran_at": "2026-07-11T22:57:04Z",
      "values_compared": 81,
      "numeric_mismatches": 0,
      "record": "verification.json"
    }
  },
  "byline": {
    "software_agent": {
      "name": "Claude Opus 4.8",
      "model_id": "claude-opus-4-8"
    },
    "data_creators": [
      "Gütschow",
      "Johannes",
      "Günther",
      "Annika",
      "Pflüger",
      "Mika"
    ],
    "data_creator_orcids": null,
    "question_asker": "Mark Hahnel"
  },
  "source_dataset": {
    "title": "The_PRIMAP-hist_national_historical_emissions_time_series_(1750-2019)_v2.3",
    "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.5175154",
    "license": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International",
    "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5175154",
    "download_url": "https://zenodo.org/api/records/5175154/files/Guetschow-et-al-2021-PRIMAP-hist_v2.3_28_Jul_2021.csv/content"
  },
  "components": [
    {
      "name": "analysis",
      "type": "code",
      "path": "analysis.py",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/analysis",
      "produced_by": null
    },
    {
      "name": "fig-1",
      "type": "figure",
      "path": "figures/fig-1-scenario-divergence-by-group.png",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/fig-1",
      "produced_by": "analysis"
    },
    {
      "name": "fig-2",
      "type": "figure",
      "path": "figures/fig-2-exact-agreement-fraction.png",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/fig-2",
      "produced_by": "analysis"
    },
    {
      "name": "fig-3",
      "type": "figure",
      "path": "figures/fig-3-effect-over-time.png",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/fig-3",
      "produced_by": "analysis"
    },
    {
      "name": "fig-4",
      "type": "figure",
      "path": "figures/fig-4-effect-by-gas.png",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/fig-4",
      "produced_by": "analysis"
    },
    {
      "name": "tbl-1",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "tables/tbl-1-per-country-2019.csv",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/tbl-1",
      "produced_by": "analysis"
    },
    {
      "name": "tbl-2",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "tables/tbl-2-confirmatory-summary.csv",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/tbl-2",
      "produced_by": "analysis"
    },
    {
      "name": "tbl-3",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "tables/tbl-3-temporal-robustness.csv",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/tbl-3",
      "produced_by": "analysis"
    },
    {
      "name": "tbl-4",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "tables/tbl-4-gas-and-rounding-robustness.csv",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/tbl-4",
      "produced_by": "analysis"
    },
    {
      "name": "narrative",
      "type": "narrative",
      "path": "narrative.md",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/narrative",
      "produced_by": null
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "n": 1,
      "subject": "Between-variant divergence in 2019 national total GHG",
      "predicate": "is stochastically larger for",
      "object": "Annex I than non-Annex I countries",
      "assertion_text": "For the 2019 national total GHG estimate, the absolute symmetric relative difference between the country-reported-prioritized and third-party-prioritized variants is larger for Annex I (n=40, median 9.1%) than non-Annex I countries (n=166, median 0.6%); two-sided Mann-Whitney U=4590, p=1.04e-04, Cliff's delta=0.383 (95% CI 0.235 to 0.523).",
      "supported_by": [
        "fig-1",
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      "confidence": 0.95,
      "novelty_grade": "B",
      "mode": "confirmatory",
      "verification_status": "unverified",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/claim-1"
    },
    {
      "n": 2,
      "subject": "Exact equality of the two variants (2019 national total GHG)",
      "predicate": "is strongly associated with",
      "object": "non-Annex I status",
      "assertion_text": "The two variants are exactly identical for only 1 of 40 Annex I countries (2.5%) versus 82 of 166 non-Annex I countries (49.4%); Fisher's exact odds ratio=38.1, p=3.53e-09. This is consistent with the absence of independent country-reported inventories for many non-Annex I countries, so both prioritization rules fall back to the same source.",
      "supported_by": [
        "fig-2",
        "tbl-2",
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      "confidence": 0.95,
      "novelty_grade": "B",
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      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/claim-2"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "subject": "The larger Annex I divergence",
      "predicate": "persists across",
      "object": "1990, 2000, 2010 and 2019",
      "assertion_text": "The effect is present in every year tested: Cliff's delta (Annex I vs non-Annex I of the absolute between-variant difference) = 0.214 (1990), 0.226 (2000), 0.279 (2010), 0.383 (2019), each with a bootstrap 95% CI excluding zero (all p<0.05).",
      "supported_by": [
        "fig-3",
        "tbl-3",
        "analysis"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "novelty_grade": "C",
      "mode": "confirmatory",
      "verification_status": "unverified",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/claim-3"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "subject": "The larger Annex I divergence",
      "predicate": "is not an artifact of",
      "object": "rounding in the published files",
      "assertion_text": "Recomputing the 2019 primary test from the no-rounding source variant gives Cliff's delta=0.395 versus 0.383 for the standard file, a change of 0.013; the number of exactly-equal countries changes from 83 to 80.",
      "supported_by": [
        "tbl-4",
        "analysis"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "novelty_grade": "C",
      "mode": "confirmatory",
      "verification_status": "unverified",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/claim-4"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "subject": "The larger Annex I divergence",
      "predicate": "holds separately for",
      "object": "CO2 and CH4",
      "assertion_text": "Repeating the 2019 primary test for individual gases gives Cliff's delta=0.312 (95% CI 0.163 to 0.452) for CO2 and 0.416 (95% CI 0.274 to 0.550) for CH4; both CIs exclude zero, so the pattern is not specific to the aggregate GWP basket.",
      "supported_by": [
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        "tbl-4",
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      ],
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "novelty_grade": "C",
      "mode": "confirmatory",
      "verification_status": "unverified",
      "ark": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/claim-5"
    }
  ],
  "exports": {
    "object_json": "object.json",
    "claims_json": "claims.json",
    "ro_crate": "ro-crate-metadata.json",
    "verification": "verification.json",
    "code": "analysis.py",
    "emissions": [
      {
        "format": "datapackage",
        "file": "datapackage.json"
      }
    ]
  }
}