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  "concept": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17",
  "url": "https://datasetpapers.com/papers/primap-hist-prioritization-scenario-divergence/",
  "title": "Source-prioritization choices move industrialized-country GHG totals more than others",
  "source_dataset": {
    "title": "The_PRIMAP-hist_national_historical_emissions_time_series_(1750-2019)_v2.3",
    "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.5175154",
    "license": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International"
  },
  "verification": {
    "method": "re_execution",
    "status": "matched",
    "reproduced": true,
    "ran_at": "2026-07-11T22:57:04Z",
    "record": "verification.json"
  },
  "gate": {
    "passed": true,
    "version": "gate-0.1",
    "novelty_grade": "B",
    "failed": []
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  "claims": [
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      "n": 1,
      "triple": {
        "subject": "Between-variant divergence in 2019 national total GHG",
        "predicate": "is stochastically larger for",
        "object": "Annex I than non-Annex I countries"
      },
      "assertion_text": "For the 2019 national total GHG estimate, the absolute symmetric relative difference between the country-reported-prioritized and third-party-prioritized variants is larger for Annex I (n=40, median 9.1%) than non-Annex I countries (n=166, median 0.6%); two-sided Mann-Whitney U=4590, p=1.04e-04, Cliff's delta=0.383 (95% CI 0.235 to 0.523).",
      "novelty_grade": "B",
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      "id": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/claim-2",
      "n": 2,
      "triple": {
        "subject": "Exact equality of the two variants (2019 national total GHG)",
        "predicate": "is strongly associated with",
        "object": "non-Annex I status"
      },
      "assertion_text": "The two variants are exactly identical for only 1 of 40 Annex I countries (2.5%) versus 82 of 166 non-Annex I countries (49.4%); Fisher's exact odds ratio=38.1, p=3.53e-09. This is consistent with the absence of independent country-reported inventories for many non-Annex I countries, so both prioritization rules fall back to the same source.",
      "novelty_grade": "B",
      "mode": "confirmatory",
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      "n": 3,
      "triple": {
        "subject": "The larger Annex I divergence",
        "predicate": "persists across",
        "object": "1990, 2000, 2010 and 2019"
      },
      "assertion_text": "The effect is present in every year tested: Cliff's delta (Annex I vs non-Annex I of the absolute between-variant difference) = 0.214 (1990), 0.226 (2000), 0.279 (2010), 0.383 (2019), each with a bootstrap 95% CI excluding zero (all p<0.05).",
      "novelty_grade": "C",
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      "id": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/claim-4",
      "n": 4,
      "triple": {
        "subject": "The larger Annex I divergence",
        "predicate": "is not an artifact of",
        "object": "rounding in the published files"
      },
      "assertion_text": "Recomputing the 2019 primary test from the no-rounding source variant gives Cliff's delta=0.395 versus 0.383 for the standard file, a change of 0.013; the number of exactly-equal countries changes from 83 to 80.",
      "novelty_grade": "C",
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      "confidence": 0.9,
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      "id": "ark:/99999/dp-the-primap-hist-national-historical-emissions-time-series-17.v1/claim-5",
      "n": 5,
      "triple": {
        "subject": "The larger Annex I divergence",
        "predicate": "holds separately for",
        "object": "CO2 and CH4"
      },
      "assertion_text": "Repeating the 2019 primary test for individual gases gives Cliff's delta=0.312 (95% CI 0.163 to 0.452) for CO2 and 0.416 (95% CI 0.274 to 0.550) for CH4; both CIs exclude zero, so the pattern is not specific to the aggregate GWP basket.",
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