{ "acceptance_version": "0.1", "object_path": "examples/helio4cast-icme-catalog", "manifest": "agent/tools.json", "published_results_path": "results.json", "notes": "Every published unit has one call at defaults, cross-linked to its recipe. The off-reference calls split the catalogue at 1.1 AU. The farthest event below the cut is a Juno cruise event at 1.0985 AU (the farthest 1-AU monitor event is STEREO-B at 1.0861 AU) and the nearest beyond it is Juno at 1.1064 AU. Inside the cut are all 1,630 events of the eight inner-heliosphere and 1-AU spacecraft plus 3 of Juno's 53 (n = 1,633); beyond it are Ulysses (279 events, from 1.340 AU), MAVEN (10, from 1.391 AU) and the other 50 Juno events (n = 339). The two windows do not share one exponent: OLS gives 1.595 inside and 1.262 beyond, with non-overlapping bootstrap CIs that both exclude the published 1.465, and Theil-Sen shows the same split. The outer exponent rests mainly on Ulysses, so the surface cannot say how much of the difference is radial evolution and how much is which missions sample each window. Claims 1, 4 and 5 survive every alternative tried here; claim 2's single power law and claim 3's stability describe the pooled sample.", "calls": [ { "call_id": "data-published", "tool": "dataset_summary", "args": {}, "expect": { "kind": "published_pointer", "result_path": "/data" }, "recipe_id": "helio4cast-icme-data", "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true }, { "call_id": "t1-spearman-published", "tool": "radial_correlation", "args": {}, "expect": { "kind": "published_pointer", "result_path": "/T1_spearman" }, "recipe_id": "helio4cast-icme-t1-spearman", "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true }, { "call_id": "t1-without-1au-monitors-off-reference", "tool": "radial_correlation", "args": { "exclude_spacecraft": [ "Wind", "STEREO-A", "STEREO-B" ] }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "Spearman rank correlation (mo_bmean vs mo_sc_heliodistance)", "statistic_rho": -0.9279834848016077, "p_value": 0.0, "effect_size": "rho", "effect_size_value": -0.9279834848016077, "n": 912 } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "Wind, STEREO-A and STEREO-B hold 1,060 of the 1,972 events, all within 0.95-1.09 AU. Dropping them strengthens rho from -0.754 to -0.928 (n = 912): the pile-up at 1 AU adds field-strength scatter at an almost fixed distance, not the trend. Claim 1 does not rest on it." }, { "call_id": "t1-beyond-1p1-au-off-reference", "tool": "radial_correlation", "args": { "r_min_au": 1.1 }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "Spearman rank correlation (mo_bmean vs mo_sc_heliodistance)", "statistic_rho": -0.6763350799662177, "p_value": 1.1535828437776193e-46, "effect_size": "rho", "effect_size_value": -0.6763350799662177, "n": 339 } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "Beyond 1.1 AU alone (Ulysses 279, Juno 50, MAVEN 10; n = 339) the decline is still strong, rho = -0.676, p = 1.2e-46. Claim 1's monotonic decline is not an inner-heliosphere effect carried outward by the pooled fit." }, { "call_id": "t2-powerlaw-published", "tool": "powerlaw_fit", "args": {}, "expect": { "kind": "published_pointer", "result_path": "/T2_powerlaw_ols" }, "recipe_id": "helio4cast-icme-t2-powerlaw", "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true }, { "call_id": "t2-inside-1p1-au-off-reference", "tool": "powerlaw_fit", "args": { "r_max_au": 1.1 }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "OLS log10(mo_bmean) ~ log10(r)", "statistic_slope": -1.59473789034423, "alpha": 1.59473789034423, "slope_ci95": [ -1.6499074565234861, -1.5415008686560565 ], "alpha_ci95": [ 1.5415008686560565, 1.6499074565234861 ], "intercept": 0.9963074601769315, "r2": 0.6297428381152693, "p_value": 0.0, "effect_size": "R2", "effect_size_value": 0.6297428381152693, "n": 1633 } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "The most consequential call in this file. Inside 1.1 AU (n = 1,633) the exponent is alpha = 1.595, 95% bootstrap CI [1.542, 1.650]. The published global alpha of 1.465 lies below that interval." }, { "call_id": "t2-beyond-1p1-au-off-reference", "tool": "powerlaw_fit", "args": { "r_min_au": 1.1 }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "OLS log10(mo_bmean) ~ log10(r)", "statistic_slope": -1.2620131598452466, "alpha": 1.2620131598452466, "slope_ci95": [ -1.367679186319557, -1.1600046081170692 ], "alpha_ci95": [ 1.1600046081170692, 1.367679186319557 ], "intercept": 0.9051829683756196, "r2": 0.5430632384607348, "p_value": 2.851406340333722e-59, "effect_size": "R2", "effect_size_value": 0.5430632384607348, "n": 339 } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "Beyond 1.1 AU (n = 339) alpha = 1.262, 95% CI [1.160, 1.368], which lies wholly below the inner interval and also excludes the global 1.465. The two windows do not share one exponent: in this sample the field falls off more steeply inside 1.1 AU than beyond it, and the global 1.465 falls between the two. Ulysses supplies 279 of the 339 outer events (see loso-beyond-1p1-au-off-reference), so this surface cannot separate radial evolution from differences between the missions that populate each window. Claim 2's 'well described by a power law' and its tight CI describe the pooled catalogue; they do not establish a single law across 0.07-5.4 AU." }, { "call_id": "t2-without-1au-monitors-off-reference", "tool": "powerlaw_fit", "args": { "exclude_spacecraft": [ "Wind", "STEREO-A", "STEREO-B" ] }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "OLS log10(mo_bmean) ~ log10(r)", "statistic_slope": -1.4717163280791812, "alpha": 1.4717163280791812, "slope_ci95": [ -1.5086835091873991, -1.4343872105872502 ], "alpha_ci95": [ 1.4343872105872502, 1.5086835091873991 ], "intercept": 1.0279308237661768, "r2": 0.8979504396130142, "p_value": 0.0, "effect_size": "R2", "effect_size_value": 0.8979504396130142, "n": 912 } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "Without the three 1-AU monitors alpha = 1.472 against 1.465, and R2 rises from 0.820 to 0.898. The 1,060 events at a near-fixed distance widen the scatter but do not pin the slope." }, { "call_id": "t2-bootstrap-precision-off-reference", "tool": "powerlaw_fit", "args": { "seed": 2026, "n_boot": 20000 }, "select": "/alpha_ci95", "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": [ 1.4271300696037659, 1.5033312699689587 ] }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "A different seed with twice the resamples moves the alpha CI to [1.427, 1.503] from the published [1.428, 1.504]. Both endpoints shift by under 0.001, so the interval is stable but its third decimal is at the bootstrap's Monte Carlo resolution." }, { "call_id": "t3-theilsen-published", "tool": "robust_powerlaw_fit", "args": {}, "expect": { "kind": "published_pointer", "result_path": "/T3_theilsen" }, "recipe_id": "helio4cast-icme-t3-theilsen", "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true }, { "call_id": "t3-inside-1p1-au-off-reference", "tool": "robust_powerlaw_fit", "args": { "r_max_au": 1.1 }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "Theil-Sen robust slope of log10(mo_bmean) ~ log10(r)", "statistic_slope": -1.579023303079814, "alpha": 1.579023303079814, "intercept": 1.0474502745147218, "slope_ci95": [ -1.6506769229982248, -1.5083171575920573 ], "alpha_ci95": [ 1.5083171575920573, 1.6506769229982248 ], "effect_size": "robust_slope", "effect_size_value": -1.579023303079814, "n": 1633 } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "The outlier-robust estimator agrees with OLS on the inner exponent: Theil-Sen alpha = 1.579 inside 1.1 AU, CI [1.508, 1.651], against OLS 1.595." }, { "call_id": "t3-beyond-1p1-au-off-reference", "tool": "robust_powerlaw_fit", "args": { "r_min_au": 1.1 }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "Theil-Sen robust slope of log10(mo_bmean) ~ log10(r)", "statistic_slope": -1.1913349908867876, "alpha": 1.1913349908867876, "intercept": 0.983841826980131, "slope_ci95": [ -1.3079054067903948, -1.0754207082499592 ], "alpha_ci95": [ 1.0754207082499592, 1.3079054067903948 ], "effect_size": "robust_slope", "effect_size_value": -1.1913349908867876, "n": 339 } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "Theil-Sen beyond 1.1 AU shows the same flattening: alpha = 1.191, CI [1.075, 1.308], which does not overlap the inner Theil-Sen CI. The inner/outer difference is not an artefact of a few extreme events under least squares." }, { "call_id": "loso-published", "tool": "leave_one_spacecraft_out", "args": {}, "expect": { "kind": "published_pointer", "result_path": "/guard_loso" }, "recipe_id": "helio4cast-icme-guard-loso", "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true }, { "call_id": "loso-beyond-1p1-au-off-reference", "tool": "leave_one_spacecraft_out", "args": { "r_min_au": 1.1 }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "Leave-one-spacecraft-out global alpha refit", "alpha_min": 0.9514413792462685, "alpha_max": 1.263487475857615, "alpha_range": 0.3120460966113464, "full_alpha": 1.2620131598452466, "per_exclusion": [ { "excluded_sc": "Juno", "alpha": 1.263487475857615, "slope": -1.263487475857615, "n": 289 }, { "excluded_sc": "MAVEN", "alpha": 1.2323180585207756, "slope": -1.2323180585207756, "n": 329 }, { "excluded_sc": "ULYSSES", "alpha": 0.9514413792462685, "slope": -0.9514413792462685, "n": 60 } ] } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "Beyond 1.1 AU the exponent rests on one mission. Dropping Ulysses leaves Juno and MAVEN (60 events) at alpha = 0.951 against 1.262 with it, a range of 0.312, nearly four times the whole-catalogue LOSO range of 0.080; dropping Juno or MAVEN instead moves it by at most 0.030. Claim 3 holds for the pooled fit, but the outer-window exponent is largely a Ulysses measurement (279 of 339 events) and carries whatever Ulysses' out-of-ecliptic orbit and solar-cycle timing contribute, which this surface does not test." }, { "call_id": "loso-inside-1p1-au-off-reference", "tool": "leave_one_spacecraft_out", "args": { "r_max_au": 1.1 }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "Leave-one-spacecraft-out global alpha refit", "alpha_min": 1.572956626715649, "alpha_max": 1.6295111435602436, "alpha_range": 0.05655451684459467, "full_alpha": 1.59473789034423, "per_exclusion": [ { "excluded_sc": "BepiColombo", "alpha": 1.5940932209982013, "slope": -1.5940932209982013, "n": 1547 }, { "excluded_sc": "Juno", "alpha": 1.5955046869697591, "slope": -1.5955046869697591, "n": 1630 }, { "excluded_sc": "MESSENGER", "alpha": 1.594952190815081, "slope": -1.594952190815081, "n": 1546 }, { "excluded_sc": "PSP", "alpha": 1.6295111435602436, "slope": -1.6295111435602436, "n": 1488 }, { "excluded_sc": "STEREO-A", "alpha": 1.572956626715649, "slope": -1.572956626715649, "n": 1270 }, { "excluded_sc": "STEREO-B", "alpha": 1.5792180700538172, "slope": -1.5792180700538172, "n": 1483 }, { "excluded_sc": "SolarOrbiter", "alpha": 1.574581316747172, "slope": -1.574581316747172, "n": 1474 }, { "excluded_sc": "VEX", "alpha": 1.5972746457002702, "slope": -1.5972746457002702, "n": 1540 }, { "excluded_sc": "Wind", "alpha": 1.628091662340081, "slope": -1.628091662340081, "n": 1086 } ] } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "Inside 1.1 AU no single mission carries the exponent: leave-one-out alpha spans 1.573-1.630 (range 0.057). Removing Parker Solar Probe, the widest inner lever arm, steepens it to 1.630. The steep inner exponent is not one spacecraft's." }, { "call_id": "perspacecraft-published", "tool": "perspacecraft_slopes", "args": {}, "expect": { "kind": "published_pointer", "result_path": "/guard_perspacecraft" }, "recipe_id": "helio4cast-icme-guard-perspacecraft", "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true }, { "call_id": "perspacecraft-min-n-10-off-reference", "tool": "perspacecraft_slopes", "args": { "min_n": 10 }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "Per-spacecraft log-log OLS slope + within-spacecraft Spearman (n>=10)", "spacecraft": [ { "sc_insitu": "Juno", "n": 53, "r_min": 1.0445, "r_max": 5.4246, "r_span_AU": 4.3801, "slope": -0.9704715817426417, "alpha": 0.9704715817426417, "r2": 0.6245082254591965, "spearman_rho": -0.777715077162568, "spearman_p": 7.373808821999338e-12, "spearman_p_bh": 1.1470369278665637e-11 }, { "sc_insitu": "ULYSSES", "n": 279, "r_min": 1.34, "r_max": 5.4081, "r_span_AU": 4.0681, "slope": -1.2038112673434715, "alpha": 1.2038112673434715, "r2": 0.3961646146711337, "spearman_rho": -0.5246186029672345, "spearman_p": 3.932127963481597e-21, "spearman_p_bh": 9.174965248123726e-21 }, { "sc_insitu": "PSP", "n": 145, "r_min": 0.0685, "r_max": 0.9079, "r_span_AU": 0.8394, "slope": -1.4740295707045346, "alpha": 1.4740295707045346, "r2": 0.7403393485287398, "spearman_rho": -0.6984344433055827, "spearman_p": 1.5870077827234434e-22, "spearman_p_bh": 5.554527239532052e-22 }, { "sc_insitu": "SolarOrbiter", "n": 159, "r_min": 0.2926, "r_max": 1.015, "r_span_AU": 0.7223999999999999, "slope": -1.626524639648142, "alpha": 1.626524639648142, "r2": 0.5777933056509007, "spearman_rho": -0.7021477963582259, "spearman_p": 6.258270640879212e-25, "spearman_p_bh": 8.761578897230897e-24 }, { "sc_insitu": "BepiColombo", "n": 86, "r_min": 0.3062, "r_max": 1.0251, "r_span_AU": 0.7188999999999999, "slope": -1.577785304686282, "alpha": 1.577785304686282, "r2": 0.6944312850552188, "spearman_rho": -0.8306365640733163, "spearman_p": 4.534932752779642e-23, "spearman_p_bh": 3.174452926945749e-22 }, { "sc_insitu": "MESSENGER", "n": 87, "r_min": 0.3075, "r_max": 0.7436, "r_span_AU": 0.43610000000000004, "slope": -1.6385489549999426, "alpha": 1.6385489549999426, "r2": 0.5377909247467343, "spearman_rho": -0.6541209492489023, "spearman_p": 6.415687501210876e-12, "spearman_p_bh": 1.1470369278665637e-11 }, { "sc_insitu": "MAVEN", "n": 10, "r_min": 1.3908, "r_max": 1.6558, "r_span_AU": 0.2649999999999999, "slope": -1.3527529560442884, "alpha": 1.3527529560442884, "r2": 0.05127296288513493, "spearman_rho": -0.09090909090909088, "spearman_p": 0.8027717312071619, "spearman_p_bh": 0.8682339471947014 }, { "sc_insitu": "STEREO-B", "n": 150, "r_min": 0.9791, "r_max": 1.0861, "r_span_AU": 0.1070000000000001, "slope": -0.9039124235973002, "alpha": 0.9039124235973002, "r2": 0.004324495992849517, "spearman_rho": -0.045864480028766585, "spearman_p": 0.5773107215755912, "spearman_p_bh": 0.752680700943433 }, { "sc_insitu": "Wind", "n": 547, "r_min": 0.9723, "r_max": 1.017, "r_span_AU": 0.04469999999999985, "slope": 0.3406450517812416, "alpha": -0.3406450517812416, "r2": 9.876264436713013e-05, "spearman_rho": -0.010512410859905895, "spearman_p": 0.8062172366807941, "spearman_p_bh": 0.8682339471947014 }, { "sc_insitu": "STEREO-A", "n": 363, "r_min": 0.9543, "r_max": 0.9727, "r_span_AU": 0.018399999999999972, "slope": -4.394695707664179, "alpha": 4.394695707664179, "r2": 0.002019456087294695, "spearman_rho": -0.02826760477861684, "spearman_p": 0.5913919793126974, "spearman_p_bh": 0.752680700943433 }, { "sc_insitu": "VEX", "n": 93, "r_min": 0.7185, "r_max": 0.7284, "r_span_AU": 0.00990000000000002, "slope": 9.723097499266437, "alpha": -9.723097499266437, "r2": 0.01414794721606167, "spearman_rho": -0.00519913880376156, "spearman_p": 0.9605520018934365, "spearman_p_bh": 0.9605520018934365 } ], "n_spacecraft_tested": 11, "multiple_comparison_correction": "Benjamini-Hochberg FDR across full guard family" } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "Lowering the inclusion threshold from 30 to 10 events admits MAVEN (n = 10, r-span 0.265 AU, just under the narrative's ~0.3 AU line) and enlarges the BH family to 14 tests. MAVEN's Spearman rho is -0.091 (BH p = 0.87), so it does not break the baseline pattern, though with ten events its test has little power and its null adds little evidence. The four near-fixed-distance spacecraft of claim 5 stay above 0.6 after the enlarged correction (lowest 0.753, STEREO-A and STEREO-B), so claim 5 does not depend on the n >= 30 cut." }, { "call_id": "within-published", "tool": "within_spacecraft", "args": {}, "expect": { "kind": "published_pointer", "result_path": "/guard_within_spacecraft" }, "recipe_id": "helio4cast-icme-guard-within", "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true }, { "call_id": "within-six-reliable-baselines-off-reference", "tool": "within_spacecraft", "args": { "within_targets": [ "PSP", "Juno", "ULYSSES", "SolarOrbiter", "BepiColombo", "MESSENGER" ] }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": { "test": "Within-spacecraft Spearman (caller-selected instruments)", "targets": [ { "sc_insitu": "PSP", "n": 145, "r_min": 0.0685, "r_max": 0.9079, "spearman_rho": -0.6984344433055827, "spearman_p": 1.5870077827234434e-22, "ols_slope": -1.4740295707045346, "ols_alpha": 1.4740295707045346, "r2": 0.7403393485287398, "spearman_p_bh": 4.2320207539291823e-22 }, { "sc_insitu": "Juno", "n": 53, "r_min": 1.0445, "r_max": 5.4246, "spearman_rho": -0.777715077162568, "spearman_p": 7.373808821999338e-12, "ols_slope": -0.9704715817426417, "ols_alpha": 0.9704715817426417, "r2": 0.6245082254591965, "spearman_p_bh": 9.831745095999117e-12 }, { "sc_insitu": "ULYSSES", "n": 279, "r_min": 1.34, "r_max": 5.4081, "spearman_rho": -0.5246186029672345, "spearman_p": 3.932127963481597e-21, "ols_slope": -1.2038112673434715, "ols_alpha": 1.2038112673434715, "r2": 0.3961646146711337, "spearman_p_bh": 7.864255926963194e-21 }, { "sc_insitu": "SolarOrbiter", "n": 159, "r_min": 0.2926, "r_max": 1.015, "spearman_rho": -0.7021477963582259, "spearman_p": 6.258270640879212e-25, "ols_slope": -1.626524639648142, "ols_alpha": 1.626524639648142, "r2": 0.5777933056509007, "spearman_p_bh": 5.00661651270337e-24 }, { "sc_insitu": "BepiColombo", "n": 86, "r_min": 0.3062, "r_max": 1.0251, "spearman_rho": -0.8306365640733163, "spearman_p": 4.534932752779642e-23, "ols_slope": -1.577785304686282, "ols_alpha": 1.577785304686282, "r2": 0.6944312850552188, "spearman_p_bh": 1.8139731011118567e-22 }, { "sc_insitu": "MESSENGER", "n": 87, "r_min": 0.3075, "r_max": 0.7436, "spearman_rho": -0.6541209492489023, "spearman_p": 6.415687501210876e-12, "ols_slope": -1.6385489549999426, "ols_alpha": 1.6385489549999426, "r2": 0.5377909247467343, "spearman_p_bh": 9.831745095999117e-12 } ] } }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "The published object already corrects these six: guard (a) in results.json /guard_perspacecraft gives BH p below 1.1e-11 for Juno, Ulysses, PSP, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo and MESSENGER over its 13-test family, and that is what supports the narrative's six-spacecraft statement. This call re-tests the same six in the guard (c) framing, as within-spacecraft tests alongside the ten per-spacecraft tests in a 16-test family. The within-spacecraft Spearman is the same test as guard (a)'s, so the raw p-values are identical and only the family changes; each of the six is now counted twice, the published double count on a larger scale. Every one stays significant (all corrected p < 1e-11), so claim 4 does not depend on stopping at the three widest baselines." }, { "call_id": "guard-family-published", "tool": "guard_family", "args": {}, "expect": { "kind": "published_pointer", "result_path": "/guard_family_bh" }, "recipe_id": "helio4cast-icme-guard-bh", "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true }, { "call_id": "guard-family-deduplicated-off-reference", "tool": "guard_family", "args": { "within_targets": [] }, "expect": { "kind": "literal", "value": [ { "test": "perSC_spearman_Juno", "p_raw": 7.373808821999338e-12, "p_bh": 1.2289681369998896e-11 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_ULYSSES", "p_raw": 3.932127963481597e-21, "p_bh": 9.830319908703992e-21 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_PSP", "p_raw": 1.5870077827234434e-22, "p_bh": 5.290025942411478e-22 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_SolarOrbiter", "p_raw": 6.258270640879212e-25, "p_bh": 6.258270640879213e-24 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_BepiColombo", "p_raw": 4.534932752779642e-23, "p_bh": 2.267466376389821e-22 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_MESSENGER", "p_raw": 6.415687501210876e-12, "p_bh": 1.2289681369998896e-11 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_STEREO-B", "p_raw": 0.5773107215755912, "p_bh": 0.7392399741408717 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_Wind", "p_raw": 0.8062172366807941, "p_bh": 0.8957969296453268 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_STEREO-A", "p_raw": 0.5913919793126974, "p_bh": 0.7392399741408717 }, { "test": "perSC_spearman_VEX", "p_raw": 0.9605520018934365, "p_bh": 0.9605520018934366 } ] }, "rel_tolerance": 1e-06, "abs_tolerance": 1e-09, "enabled": true, "notes": "The published BH family counts PSP, Juno and Ulysses twice, once as per-spacecraft and once as within-spacecraft tests, with identical p-values. Correcting over the ten distinct tests instead raises the corrected p for Juno, Ulysses, PSP, MESSENGER, STEREO-A, STEREO-B and Wind (Juno 1.07e-11 to 1.23e-11; STEREO-A and STEREO-B 0.699 to 0.739; Wind 0.873 to 0.896), lowers it for Solar Orbiter (8.14e-24 to 6.26e-24) and BepiColombo (2.95e-22 to 2.27e-22), and leaves VEX unchanged (0.961). The double count has two opposing effects: it enlarges the family (13 tests against 10), which raises every corrected p, and it pushes every test ranked at or behind a duplicated p further down the ranking, which lowers it. Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo rank ahead of all three duplicates and feel only the first effect; for VEX, last in both families, the two cancel exactly. The published correction is therefore neither uniformly conservative nor uniformly anti-conservative; the double count shifts the BH ranks. The six significant tests stay below 1.3e-11 and the four near-fixed-distance tests above claim 5's 0.6 in both families, so claims 4 and 5 hold either way." } ] }